Valutazione multirischio e proposte di strategie di mitigazione nella Regione Marche (Italia)

Abstract

Effective disaster risk management in any area depends on analyzing all relevant risks that could potentially affect it. A proper multi-risk evaluation requires ranking the analyzed risks and estimating the overall expected impacts, including the interactions between possible hazards and vulnerabilities. However, due to the complexity and challenges of modeling these interactions, they are often overlooked. As a result, risks from different sources are typically assessed through independent analyses. A common issue is that the assessment procedures and metrics used to express various risks often differ, making it difficult to compare the results of individual risk analyses. To address this problem, this thesis introduces a procedure for comparing different risks, using an Italian region as a case study. The focus is on earthquakes and floods as the primary hazards. First, an analysis of the EM-DAT database at both European and Italian levels was conducted to select the case study area, which is the Marche region. Then, a review of existing single and multi-risk assessment methods in the literature was carried out. The potential impacts of each hazard were assessed separately, and the resulting economic losses were combined to provide a comprehensive overview. The ratios of economic losses due to earthquakes and floods were mapped, highlighting areas where one risk is significantly higher than the other. As a result of this work, municipalities were prioritized based on individual risks and their combined impacts, with preliminary suggestions for possible mitigation strategies.

Effective disaster risk management in any area depends on analyzing all relevant risks that could potentially affect it. A proper multi-risk evaluation requires ranking the analyzed risks and estimating the overall expected impacts, including the interactions between possible hazards and vulnerabilities. However, due to the complexity and challenges of modeling these interactions, they are often overlooked. As a result, risks from different sources are typically assessed through independent analyses. A common issue is that the assessment procedures and metrics used to express various risks often differ, making it difficult to compare the results of individual risk analyses. To address this problem, this thesis introduces a procedure for comparing different risks, using an Italian region as a case study. The focus is on earthquakes and floods as the primary hazards. First, an analysis of the EM-DAT database at both European and Italian levels was conducted to select the case study area, which is the Marche region. Then, a review of existing single and multi-risk assessment methods in the literature was carried out. The potential impacts of each hazard were assessed separately, and the resulting economic losses were combined to provide a comprehensive overview. The ratios of economic losses due to earthquakes and floods were mapped, highlighting areas where one risk is significantly higher than the other. As a result of this work, municipalities were prioritized based on individual risks and their combined impacts, with preliminary suggestions for possible mitigation strategies.